Russia could attack NATO within weeks US intelligence warns as Putin ‘aims to test alliance amid weapons shortage’

US intelligence officials have warned that Russia could attempt to test NATO’s resolve with a limited attack, potentially within the coming months.

According to reports, the assessment has shifted from previous assumptions that Vladimir Putin would avoid directly provoking NATO while Russia remains engaged in the war in Ukraine.

Possible scenarios include cyberattacks against a NATO member, the use of armed groups to seize territory, or a limited military incursion along the alliance’s eastern flank. The assessment suggests Russia could test NATO at some point between autumn 2026 and 2029. Analysts believe a limited operation could target one of the Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania, or potentially Poland.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has acknowledged that his government has received information about possible Russian attacks targeting critical infrastructure, although he stressed that any such operation would likely be limited rather than large-scale.

Russian opposition politician Garry Kasparov has also warned that Putin could attempt a small incursion into the Baltic region or Poland, arguing that the Russian leader may seek a military victory to strengthen his position at home.

NATO has said it is preparing for a range of possible scenarios and remains ready to deter and defend against threats to its members. A direct attack on a NATO country would be particularly serious because of Article 5 of the alliance’s treaty, which states that an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all.

NATO members also believe Russia is already carrying out activities designed to test the alliance’s defences. These include repeated drone incursions into NATO airspace, particularly around Romania. The latest intelligence assessment comes amid growing concerns in the West over Russia’s military intentions, NATO’s readiness and the availability of weapons and ammunition following extensive support for Ukraine.